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Builder confidence gets a boost

Posted by Mehran Aram on Sun, Jun 2, 2019 @ 09:06 AM

Sales of newly built homes are on the rise, giving homebuilders a boost in confidence as the rest of the housing market seems to be in a slump. Builder confidence in newly built, single-family homes rose three points in May to a reading of 66. Anything above 50 is generally considered positive however this is lower than the reading of 70 in May 2018. This latest information comes from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

Demand for new homes continues to remain high. The index’s component measuring sales expectations for the next six months rose to a reading of 72 last month.

“This lower-interest rate environment, along with ongoing job growth and rising wages, is contributing to a gradual improvement in the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Today, conforming no-point 30-year fixed mortgage rates are averaging 4.00 percent, 15-year rates are near 3.625 percent and the 5-year ARM is averaging 4.00 percent.

Do you have a question for Real Estate & Mortgage Analyst Mehran Aram? Submit your queries about a home purchase, refinance, or reverse mortgage via Aramco.Biz, social media (#AramcoReport), or over the phone at (866) 381-8888 and your questions may be featured in an upcoming article.

Topics: Housing Market, National Association of Home Builders, new homes, single family homes, NAHB, Mortgage rates, Home Builder Confidence

Home builder confidence remains flat

Posted by Mehran Aram on Fri, Apr 19, 2019 @ 05:04 AM

The confidence level among homebuilders in the U.S. appears to be holding steady even in the aftermath of the government shutdown that kicked off the year and the lackluster pace of home sales that followed.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose by one point to a reading of 63 in April, bolstered by low mortgage rates. Builder confidence has held steady in the low 60s for three consecutive months.

“Builders report solid demand for new single-family homes but they are also grappling with affordability concerns stemming from a chronic shortage of construction workers and buildable lots,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde. “Ongoing job growth, favorable demographics and a low-interest rate environment will help to modestly spark sales growth in the near term.”

Today, conforming no-point 30-year fixed mortgage rates are averaging 4.125 percent, 15-year rates are near 3.625 percent and the 5-year ARM is averaging 4.00 percent.

Do you have a question for Real Estate & Mortgage Analyst Mehran Aram? Submit your queries about a home purchase, refinance, or reverse mortgage via Aramco.Biz, social media (#AramcoReport), or over the phone at (866) 381-8888 and your questions may be featured in an upcoming article.

Topics: Housing Market, National Association of Home Builders, Home Builders, single family homes, Mortgage rates, Housing Affordability, housing shortage, Affordability, Home Builder Confidence

ARAMCO Report - Monday April 20, 2015

Posted by The Aramco Group on Mon, Apr 20, 2015 @ 02:04 AM

Drought may create seller’s market in San Diego

Uncertainty about water policy and the ability to obtain water connections for new developments could be stopping some builders from creating new homes in the western U.S., according to the National Association of Home Builders. Housing starts in the West fell for the third straight month in March 2015, down 19 percent, to an annualized rate of 201,000.

Only 278 permits for new single-family homes were granted in San Diego County in February 2015 — the most recent month for which there are official statistics.

Home sales in San Diego County are up however, according to CoreLogic. Last month 3,467 real-estate transactions closed in the county, a 13.4 percent jump from March 2014. Therefore existing homes are selling faster than new homes are being built.

San Diego County had less than a two-month supply of residential listings at current sales rates in March 2015. Historically, less than a three-month supply of listings could indicate a seller’s market.

If the drought is indeed the cause of builders’ reticence to build new homes, then the seller’s market might persist into the future. 

For more information on a home purchase, refinance, or a reverse mortgage, visit our website at Aramco.Biz or call me at (877) 700-0942. This is Mehran Aram with today's ARAMCO Report.

Ask Mehran Aram

Topics: San Diego County, water, Drought, home starts, Seller's Market, California, Housing Market, CoreLogic, West, National Association of Home Builders

ARAMCO Report - Thursday April 16, 2015

Posted by The Aramco Group on Thu, Apr 16, 2015 @ 14:04 PM

National housing starts down, but SD okay

The pace of single-family home construction in the U.S. rebounded 2.0 percent in March 2015 compared to the month before, but not as much as economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had hoped. Challenging weather patterns caused national housing starts to drop in February, and those conditions persisted into the early part of March. Harsh weather seems to account for the total pace of home-building starts being down 2.5 percent compared to the same period in 2014.

San Diego’s market for home building, by contrast, was faster in February 2015 than at the same time last year. The region was obviously not affected by inclement winter weather. Census statistics compiled by the National Association of Home Builders showed that permits processed for new single-family homes in San Diego through February 2015 (YTD) were up 30 percent (690 permits) compared to the number processed (530) in the same period in 2014.

The mortgage bond market stayed level on Thursday, and average mortgage rates did the same: conforming no point 30-year fixed rates averaged 3.75 while 15-year rates averaged 3.0 percent.

For more information on a home purchase, refinance, or a reverse mortgage, visit our website at Aramco.Biz or call me at (877) 700-0942. This is Mehran Aram with today's ARAMCO Report.

Ask Mehran Aram

Topics: 30 year fixed rates, National Association of Home Builders, Home Builders, Housing Starts, Permits, homes

ARAMCO Report - Wednesday April 15, 2015

Posted by The Aramco Group on Wed, Apr 15, 2015 @ 16:04 PM

Homebuilder Confidence Up, Mortgage Applications Down

Homebuilders nationwide have more confidence in the sellers’ market for single-family homes in April 2015 than they did in March. According to the results from the Home Builders Index (HBI)—which is released every month by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo—the national index went up 4 points in April to 56 points from 52 last month. That is much higher than the tie for the survey’s record low of 9 points in December 2008, recorded during the recession. Homebuilders with on-the-ground knowledge have been responding to the survey since 1985, and they give a score (0-100) based on current home sales, expected sales in the next six months, and on current homebuyer traffic.

Even as builders have greater optimism about the housing market, the number of people applying for mortgages dropped 2.3 percent in the week ending on April 10th compared to one week earlier — due to rates for non-FHA 30-year mortgages inching higher.

Conforming no point 30-year fixed rates average 3.75 percent while 15-year rates average 3.0 percent.  

For more information on a home purchase, refinance, or a reverse mortgage, visit our website at Aramco.Biz or call me at (877) 700-0942. This is Mehran Aram with today's ARAMCO Report.

Ask Mehran Aram

Topics: 30 year fixed rates, National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage applications, Home Builders, Wells Fargo, Home Builders Index, HBI, NAHB, home selling, builders

ARAMCO Report - Monday March 23, 2015

Posted by The Aramco Group on Mon, Mar 23, 2015 @ 15:03 PM

Homebuilding continues to trail pre-recession levels even though the economy is gaining steam and consumer demand for new homes is high. This is according to research by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).  The housing collapse following 2008 forced skilled construction workers into other industries, and 67 percent of housing developers reported that labor availability was their top concern in 2015. 57 percent also worried about lot availability. This stands in blunt contrast to 2011 when only 13 percent and 21 percent of builders were concerned about the availability of labor and lots, respectively. There is a bright spot: the percentage of developers concerned that buyers would not qualify for a mortgage has dropped from 67 percent to 45 percent in the last two years. That represents the sector’s growing confidence in the consumer economy that influences the demand for homes.

Conforming no point 30 year fixed mortgage rates average 3.75 percent with 15-year rates averaging 3 percent.

For more information on a home purchase, refinance, or a reverse mortgage, visit our website at Aramco.Biz or call me at (877) 700-0942. This is Mehran Aram with today's ARAMCO Report.

Ask Mehran Aram

Topics: confidence, economic growth, National Association of Home Builders, Construction, labor, lots, economic data, builders, availability

ARAMCO Report - Friday July 25, 2014

Posted by Mehran Aram on Fri, Jul 25, 2014 @ 17:07 PM

According to the National Association of Realtors, Chinese buyers are now the biggest international players in the U.S. housing market. More than half of the $22 billion Chinese purchases were made in California, Washington and New York and nearly 1/2 of the purchasers were strictly for investment. In areas such as San Diego according to CoreLogic, the inventory of homes down to only 2 1/2 months supply. Conforming no point 30 year fixed mortgage rates average 4 1/8th with 15 year rates closer to 3 1/8th. 

And now for something completely different: Did you know that the city of New York paid $5 million in 1853 for the land that is now central park? Today it’s worth just under $530 billion dollars!

For more information on a home purchase, refinance, or a reverse mortgage, visit our website at www.ARAMCO.Biz or call me at (877) 700-0942.

This is Mehran Aram with today's ARAMCO Report.

Ask Mehran Aram

Topics: Reverse Mortgage, Aramco Report, The Aramco Group, San Diego, Mehran Aram, Housing Market, Aramco Mortgage, New York, National Association of Home Builders, Chinese, buyers, Central Park

ARAMCO Report - Thursday May 15, 2014

Posted by Mehran Aram on Thu, May 15, 2014 @ 17:05 PM

Mixed economic data and lower stock prices pushed the 10 year treasury yields down to its lowest point since October, now just under 2.5 %. Mortgage rates remain at their lowest level of the year with conforming no point 30 year fixed rates averaging 4 1/4 % and 15 year rates closer to 3 1/4. The National Association of Home Builders, housing index fell to its lowest level in a year but mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure filings continue to decline.

And now for something completely different: Our thoughts and prayers are with all of the families in San Diego County affected by the devastating wild fires and wish them the best.

For more information on a home purchase, refinance, or a reverse mortgage, visit our website at www.ARAMCO.Biz or call me at (877) 700-0942.

This is Mehran Aram with today's ARAMCO Report.

Ask Mehran Aram

Topics: San Diego County, Aramco Report, and now for something completely different, San Diego, housing index, Southern California, Wildfires, National Association of Home Builders, economic data, Mortgage rates

ARAMCO Report - Tuesday May 6, 2014

Posted by Mehran Aram on Tue, May 6, 2014 @ 16:05 PM

According to the National Association of Home Builders, 59 metros have fully recovered from the last housing market crash and 300 saw year over year gains. Meanwhile a Trulia survey showed that 41 percent of Americans would prefer a new home while 21 percent preferred an existing home and 38 percent had no preference. In the mortgage market, conforming no point 30 year fixed rates average 4 1/4 percent with 15 year rates closer to 3 1/4 percent.

And now for something, completely different: New Yorkers have some of the longest commutes, averaging 40 minutes, well above the national average of 20 minutes.

For more information on a home purchase, refinance, or a reverse mortgage, visit our website at www.ARAMCO.biz or call me at 877-700-0942

This is Mehran Aram with today's ARAMCO report.

Ask Mehran Aram

Topics: Reverse Mortgage, Aramco Report, and now for something completely different, The Aramco Group, San Diego, Mehran Aram, New Yorker, new and existing home sales, Housing Market, Aramco Mortgage, New York, Trulia, crash, commute, National Association of Home Builders